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Author Topic: Demographic Winter and population decline  (Read 161 times)

Offline Aurelian

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Demographic Winter and population decline
« on: April 05, 2019, 11:44:42 PM »


The above is an interesting documentary on the issue of cratering fertility and birth rates world wide. I over all liked the documentary, I thought it had some solid ideas. The gist of the video is that the total number of young humans is on the decline and it threatens the stability of our economies world wide. Welfare system, paying for the armies and infrastructure and keeping pace will become so burdensome it may just all topple over under its own weight. I shall summarize it in key points, so to speak.

1. GDP is set to decline because part of GDP is the number of workers available which inevitably will fall.
2.We could in theory make everyone more educated but that still reaches a ceiling and could become prohibitively expensive. Essentially we have to work harder or smarter to keep things going to make for the decline in young people.
3.We will have to work much harder and longer just to keep pace, but will not become richer. This results in systematic frustration.
4.Less over all consumer spending, fewer children drive less consumer spending as a whole.
5.Who will take care of the elderly? Not necessarily in a literal sense but the younger generations will be facing a life that involves working harder, having less free time and being needed to care for ever more elderly who will eventually suffer in poor condition.
6.Familial ties obviously will decline as there are fewer brothers and sisters over time but also aunts and uncles, in a generation or two some people may be related to nobody which can leave an individual with little social support. And dependent on state services which will be overworked as is.
7. Also, while some say "AH! Immigration!" the issue is all nations are either in or projected to decline and likewise it cripples the poorer countries by draining them of their own human capital to prop up another nation.

I shall provide one more video, by Albert Bartlett, professor of nuclear physics at University of Colorado at Boulder.




Offline Aurelian

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Re: Demographic Winter and population decline
« Reply #1 on: April 06, 2019, 08:47:19 AM »
It is interesting to compare what I wrote in the opening post with the famous nigh-apocalyptic warnings about over-population such as this.


Offline Barabbah

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Re: Demographic Winter and population decline
« Reply #2 on: April 06, 2019, 09:52:29 AM »
I never saw a picture of Asimov but I wouldn't ever thought he had sideburns (neither classy like these)

Regarding overpopulation I should mention the name of the Alice In Chains album Jar Of Flies comes from the lesson of Cantrell's teacher in school. Two jars with flies, one underfed and the other overfed. The overfed was growing in number too much for the capability of the jar and soon died, while the other lasted an year
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Offline Aurelian

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Re: Demographic Winter and population decline
« Reply #3 on: April 06, 2019, 11:34:06 AM »
While the population of humanity will grow, due to high fertility rates in places such as Africa or India, overall the fertility rates are falling down everywhere. This has both short term and long term consequences. I do not think that a historical precedent exists for a situation such as this, at least not at this scale.

Offline Barabbah

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Re: Demographic Winter and population decline
« Reply #4 on: April 06, 2019, 01:14:53 PM »
It's not the same without wars and pandemic crises
(Too much cynical?)
"Some quotations," said Zellaby, "are greatly improved by lack of context."
― John Wyndham, The Midwich Cuckoos
"fuck the hole in the face"
― me

Offline deicide

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Re: Demographic Winter and population decline
« Reply #5 on: May 06, 2019, 11:34:06 AM »
More accurately, it's both overpopulated (more population that economics can offer a decent life for, even in depopulating developed countries) and demographically screwed up, but the main culprit it's not. The world economical system was designed, or turned out, if you like, the way it's reliant on overpopulation, majority burns at work, minority reaps benefits. Even education is screwed up, it's designed as an obstacle in order to hold off the next wave of contenders, otherwise there will be excess supply. With truly effective education, it would be possible to master the most of areas, professional and scientific, by 15-17.
It's of no surprise that disillusioned Western people aren't much into keeping this BS on anymore.

And so it means that Africans and Hindu will inherit already fvcked up Earth, they're welcome to live a life of misery on it and fvck it up even more in the process...
« Last Edit: May 06, 2019, 04:16:13 PM by deicide »
The patient was a young lady whom I was loath to disfigure (c)